Trend analysis and forecasting of the Gökırmak River streamflow (Turkey)

Gökhan Arslan, Semih Kale, Adem Yavuz Sönmez

Paper category: Original research paper
Corresponding author: Semih Kale (semihkale@comu.edu.tr)
DOI: 10.1515/ohs-2020-0021
Received: 25/02/2020
Accepted: 20/04/2020
Full text: here

Citation: Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies, Volume 49, Issue 3, Pages 230–246, eISSN 1897-3191, ISSN 1730-413X, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2020-0021.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gökırmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt’s change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gökırmak River.

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